1 Chapter 1: Experiencing the Challenge

Humans face an increasingly daunting array of problems that seem to defy solutions. To some people, these are “wicked” problems because they don’t lend themselves to once-and-for-all answers (Bianchi 2015; Pidd 2009). Problems such as the HIV crisis, climate change, or even the profitability of a growing company are like this. We may try one thing to address the problem, only to find that some things seem to improve, while other new problems emerge, or the original problem eventually seems to rebound and get worse. In addition, whatever we try, there are always tradeoffs. There are many groups who have competing interests in the problem (Hovmand 2014; Vennix 1996). Sometimes their goals seem incompatible. And then Mother Nature is yet another actor! The natural environment responds to human actions in ways that may take decades (or longer) to play out.

The purpose of Part 1 of the System Dynamics Learning Guide is to let you experience this complexity firsthand. You will play the role of decision maker in a realistic problem that seems at first to be rather straightforward, but whose behavior can defy intuition!

1.1.         Your Task – A Crisis on the Kaibab Plateau

The year is 1907.

You are a ranger in charge of the Kaibab National Forest, which is under the care of the newly formed National Forest Service. Your job is to protect the natural resources in this region for the enjoyment and use by U.S. citizens.  The Kaibab National Forest is located on the north side of the Grand Canyon in Arizona, and it includes a dramatic and pristine mesa called the Kaibab Plateau – a sanctuary of nearly 800,000 acres – an “island in the sky” on the rim of the Grand Canyon. The Kaibab Plateau (called“the Kaibab” by the locals) is home to beautiful groves of ponderosa pine, fir, and aspen, along with dramatic wildlife, such as wolves, mountain lions, coyotes, bobcats, and the iconic Kaibab mule deer. Campers and hikers frequent the area. Hunters also come, looking for a chance at a trophy mountain lion or mule deer.

You love your job. You’re an outdoorsman and avid hunter who respects the forest and its creatures.  You’ve been in this post for only 1 year and have greatly enjoyed working in this quiet but beautiful landscape, free to work without the pressure from the folks back in Washington, DC.

But all of that is changing. Shortly before becoming President in 1901, Theodore Roosevelt visited the area and took an excursion into the Kaibab Plateau.  On that visit, he saw the magnificent Kaibab mule deer (see figure 1). These animals are much larger than their eastern cousins, with the males sporting sometimes massive antlers. To Roosevelt, the Kaibab mule deer exemplified the majesty of the American West — and they surpassed any of the deer that he had seen elsewhere.  Now, well into his second term as president, he has persuaded Congress to designate the Grand Canyon – including the Kaibab Plateau as a National Game Preserve. “TR’s mandate to the infant Forest Service was to give priority to the propagation and breeding of mule deer on the new National Game Preserve.”[1]

This has put you and your beloved Kaibab on everyone’s radar! The national press is excited about the new game preserve. Photos of the mule deer are on magazine covers and front pages of newspapers all over the country. Your boss in DC, the director of the National Forest Service, wants to be sure that the Kaibab deer population flourishes and grows.

You estimate that there are somewhere between 3 and 5 thousand deer on the Kaibab, but you also suspect that the Kaibab Plateau can support a much larger deer population…perhaps ten times as many. Your boss agrees and wants you to do something to nurture the growth of the deer population to those levels.

You know that, for many years, local ranchers, and Native Americans have used the Kaibab as grazing land for their cattle and sheep. The number of sheep and cattle on the plateau have ranged from 18,000 to 200,000 according to Rasmussen (1941).  The model we use has about 100,000 such animals currently using the plateau, and although they eat different plants, they are in competition with one another.  You wonder if having fewer cattle and sheep on the Kaibab might reduce competition for food, enabling the mule deer population to take advantage of the increased food supply – and if such a move would restore the Kaibab to conditions similar to what they were before settlers from the eastern U.S. moved into the area and started raising livestock.

In addition, the wolves, coyotes, bobcats, and mountain lions on the Kaibab routinely kill and eat both deer and livestock. The local ranchers have complained about these predators for years. You also suspect that these animals may have kept the deer population from realizing its potential on the Kaibab.  The belief that eliminating predators of desirable species is well documented (Russo 1970).  You wonder what might happen to the mule deer population if you were to reduce or eliminate the number of predators.

You have to formulate a plan, and soon. Your boss is anxious to see results. The American public is watching and loves the mule deer. The President of the United States has made his wishes known. Your dream job is on the line.

What will you do?

Fortunately, you are not completely alone in this task. You have a team of fellow rangers who have a wealth of experience with the Kaibab, its forest, and its animals. Most of the people on your team grew up in the region. They know the ranchers, hunters, and campers that frequent the Kaibab. They have themselves witnessed the interplay between the livestock, the deer, and the local predators, and they know how the deer and livestock depend on the forest understory for food.

1.2. Time to get started!

Now you will have a chance to see how your plan for the Kaibab and its mule deer works. We can’t travel back in time to 1900, but we can do the next best thing: play a simulation game in which you get to implement your plans and watch them unfold, year by year. Each year you will get some information about how things are progressing in the implementation of your plans, including how the deer population are doing, what the stakeholders think (local ranchers, your boss, the President, and the general public), and how the overall Kaibab ecosystem seems to be faring.

Just like in real life (and like it was for the people who had to work on this problem back in the early 1900’s), the feedback you get will not be 100% accurate or reliable. No one could actually count the number of deer with complete accuracy. In addition, emotions sometimes cloud people’s judgment and their reactions to what they perceive is happening.  Don’t be afraid to make adjustments to your original plan as you see how things unfold.

Each “ 5 years” of the simulation game, you and your team need to keep a record of what happens and what you decided to do in response. To help you with this, you can click on this link and go to the Kaibab simulation model and test the policies you identified in Exercise 1.  Use the model results to fill out the table below.